How current local data and real estate forecasts could have saved us Trillions. The following posts are from my published book that tells of the untold story (still untold in 2016) on how real estate forecasts could have prevented the housing mess and messes. For us, at Growth Maps, and for many real estate investors, real estate forecasts, are what matters, not appraised value.
At the heart is 3 core problems, along with a lack of real estate forecasts:
1) No real estate professionals (brokers, agents, bankers) has current local data, they just have property data.
2) The reliance on present value or appraised value to assess risk, which only works if properties go up in value
3) The main players, bankers and Realtors, have no skin-in-the-game.
Bankers flip notes, and agent work primarily for commissions. And who holds the bag are home owners and buyers of MBS. However, it should be noted, that even if we had Florida Housing Market Predictions 2019 or Phoenix Housing Market Predictions or Housing Forecast by State, what matters is LOCAL market predictions, not macro. Unless you are Donald Trump or something and can afford to buy a city or state. And what matters is NOT is the Housing Market 2016, or even Housing Price Predictions 2018, what matters is the local forecasts at the local level. Imagine a set of dice, but not the standard 6-side dice, but with 10,000 sides.
So what if the average or median is X, what matters is local, and thus only real estate forecasts at the local level really have any meaning or use to investors.
Dissecting the Real Estate Debacle
The Players and the Practices That Got Us Here &The Missing Factor X.
How Housing Market Predictions is a Game-Changer Without housing market predictions, guess what happened? New Housing Starts Down by 57% Subprime Woes: How Far, How Wide? Countrywide Loans Drop 48% Housing Slump Could Lean Heavily on Economy There is an obvious theme in these headlines: Fear. Foreclosure rates are at record levels in many former real estate hot spots, as media and industry experts who proclaimed the invincibility of the real estate industry only months earlier now blame predatory lenders, greedy builders, and incompetent real estate professionals for the 17.9 million vacant properties swelling the inventory and ultimately driving down prices. Will housing market predictions be a game-changer?
Real estate forecasts and foreclosures.
Foreclosures from the subprime debacle will only add to that statistic.
Ultimately, simple economics dictates that excess supply will result in lower prices and cause further financial strain on the market and the economy as a whole. For millions of homeowners living on the brink of foreclosure, a further decline in prices is expected throughout 2009 and possibly into 2010. Declining home prices are known to increase foreclosure rates, as homeowners are unable to recoup enough money to cover the original loan amount.
Meanwhile, the most recent figures released on foreclosures and repossessions project to more than 4 million units this year in the U.S. and that total could be much worse, given sharply rising interest rates.
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