At Growth Maps, we focus on the core growth data that affects and leads economic growth, which directly leads to future prices in local city block prices going up or down. One of these key local economic leading indicators is migration.
Migration an Economic Leading Indicators
We define local migration by the number of births, deaths, and new residences within any local Block, Track or Zip Code. So this is more than just population changes, and takes into account local information by the Post Office which has change of address and other vendors that sell compiled data information, from hospitals and public records.
Local Migration and the United States of America People within the USA are constantly moving, renting new homes, getting new jobs, moving in with family or friends. Many people get new jobs and move over 10 times in a lifetime, and most of the time, this data is not typically available on the MLS, IDX, or on the web, which is one reason why at Growth Maps we aggregate this critical variable of local migration. In our predictive model, a 24-month housing market forecast, takes into account local migration at the Block, Track, and Zip Code levels.
We do have datasets at larger levels, but typically these levels are so high and far away from any local market, that they have very little influence on the future prices of land or real estate.
An example of Local Migration at the Block Level – a Key Leading Economic Indicators
This report shows the migration into, and out of a specific area. One can see a deep drop followed by a now steady increase, which will sometimes support increasing property values, and sometimes not. Local migration is definitely what is called a leading indicator.
Since when people are moving out or in and area, there usually is a good reason for this. But what types of people are moving?
What is their income?
Do they have jobs?
Are they leaving to find opportunity or moving there for opportunity? In other words local migration, like any other local variable cannot be looked at alone. It takes a village and lots of different local variables to build an accurate local housing forecast model. In the next chapter, we will give you a bird s eye view of the many variables that the Growth Maps consults to provide you with the data that will assure your success.
With better local economic leading indicators, the investment in real estate, is a click away. For more information, download your FREE eBook titled: “What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate Technology: Leveraging Technology and Local Analytics to Grow Your Commercial Real Estate Business”
Your comments are most welcome, and I appreciate your feedback.