I posted this on Quora, and thought it is worth repeating. Someone was wondering if the declining market in New York will have an effect on prices in other markets. The answer lies in frequency and granularity of real estate market data. Here is the answer:
I monitor prices on over 320,000 US markets. New York is the largest metro market in the USA, with over 2,000+ submarkets…. Typically, there is a variance of over + or – 30% when comparing what the large market will do in the future, when compared to the local market. If not intuitive, just look at some other variable like median income. Median income varies block by block, or Zip Code to Zip code. So does property value, and forecast value changes.
So only in some spots of New York are prices falling, in some spots they are increasing in New York today, and for the next 36-months, according to our data and models….real estate market data…
But to answer your question, the answer is no. Our national models says prices will go up a little bit for a while. Statistically never does one metro market drive prices down for the rest of the country. There is no data that suggests this for the last 15 years, and if someone does say it is so, they are not monitoring the 300,000 USA markets, just using free data that has little accuracy to the facts.
What drives prices are leading indicators like changes in population and economic variables like changes in disposable income and median income….not lagging indicators like median value, or even worse, median value of any large market. The key in any smart buying or selling decision is having access to the most current real estate market data. Which you can learn about in our Free Webinar next week.
Not so much my opinion, this is what the data says… Good question though. FYI, we are finally going to get out of the garage with our tech and data next week with a Free Webinar, next week if you are interested in learning more…
You can sign up at www.growth-maps.com/free-webinar
As always, I sure appreciate your comments,